Approaching Targets
Featured Beyond the Flypaper Effect: Crowding-In from Federal Investment in Public Transit View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Arseniy Braslavskiy
The efficacy of targeted intergovernmental transfers depends on whether they displace or attract other funds. This paper examines the impact of federal grants for public transit on state and local government spending decisions in the United States. Leveraging the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) as a natural experiment, I employ a Difference-in-Differences approach with continuous treatment. I find that each \$1 of ARRA transit funding generated \$3.9 of additional capital expenditures over the subsequent eleven years. This increase operates through two key channels: an initial increase in federally-funded expenditures with no displacement of existing state and local funds (a phenomenon known as the flypaper effect), followed by a significant crowding-in of additional state and local investment beyond that. Crowding-in is more pronounced in larger Urbanized Areas and those with existing rail systems, suggesting potential roles for political influence, large upfront costs, and cost overruns in driving this effect.
Featured Worst Case Scenarios for Sweden in Terms of Food Security and Climate Change: A Qualitative Analysis View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Stephanie Rost
This is a study to examine through document analysis the worst case scenarios in terms of food security due to climate change. This is undertaken through an examination of global tipping points, the IPCC scenario 8.5 and other climate data to review what the worst effects could possibly be. This is then complemented by interviews with relevant stakeholders to assess how this impacts civilians living in Sweden during this century.
Time to Change? The Effects of Information Provision on the Public Acceptability of Climate Change Policies, and Their Persistence Over Time View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Constantine Spandagos
To be implementable, climate policies must not only achieve climate goals without unnecessary disruption to economic activity, but must also be socially and politically acceptable. Various interventions to increase policy acceptability have been conducted, but the most effective communication channels and the duration of their effects remain uncertain. This work explores the role of information provision on public acceptability of climate policies and the persistence of these effects over time. We conduct an innovative behavioral experiment featuring a unique feedback mechanism based on real-time macroeconomic model information. Participants first state their acceptance of policies on renewable electricity, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and carbon taxes, and their preferences for recycling carbon tax revenues. They are then informed about the long-term environmental, economic, and equity impacts of their preferences, as predicted by our established general equilibrium model that simulates a country's economy in its entity. Subsequently, participants can update their preferences. We find that informing the public about the impacts of climate policies significantly increases their acceptance. Providing combined information about three types of impacts (environmental, economic, and equity) is often more effective than information about a single type. Among the various types of information, environmental information is found to be the most influential. Finally, we conduct a follow-up study after six months, and report the conditions under which information provision effects are persistent. This work provides valuable insights into designing and communicating climate policies that are likely to gain long-term social acceptance.
